杨进 万千 吴比 | 非农就业和粮食生产变化：来自中国的新证据

*中文标题和摘要系简单翻译，可能存在部分错误，请以英文为准

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作者：杨进，华中科技大学经济学院

          万千，厦门大学王亚南经济研究院

          吴比，农业农村部农村经济研究中心 

摘要：

非农就业如何影响谷物生产？ 先前的研究结果不一致。 本文提供了一个一般的理论框架来解释非农就业对粮食生产的影响，并认为这种影响不是线性的。 实证结果表明，非农就业减少了粮食生产，并没有显着改变粮食作物的结构。 重要的是，我们发现非农就业与谷物生产之间存在倒U型相关性，这意味着当非农劳动力供给相对较低时，非农就业将增加谷物产量，而当非农劳动力供给相对较高时，农业就业将会降低谷物产量。 此外，我们调查了非农就业目的地、家庭土地面积、土地特征、家庭所在地和家庭老龄化的因果效应的异质性。

Abstract

How does off-farm employment affect grain production? Previous research findings are inconsistent. This paper provides a general theoretical framework to explain the effect of off-farm employment on grain production and consider that the effect is non-liner. The empirical results show that off-farm employment decreases grain production and insignificantly changes grain crop structure. Importantly, we find an inverted-U correlation between off-farm employment and grain production, meaning that off-farm employment will increase grain production when the off-farm labor supply is relatively low and will decrease grain production when the off-farm labor supply is relatively high. Further, we investigate the heterogeneity of the causal effect in the destinations of off-farm employment, household's land scale, land features, household location, and household aging.

原文链接（点击“阅读原文”跳转）：

http://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2020.101519

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